Is Polaris Headed for a Breakdown? – August 26, 2021

Polaris Industries Inc. (PII) designs and manufactures off-road vehicles, including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles for recreational and utility purposes, snowmobiles, small vehicles, and on-road vehicles, including motorcycles and low-emission vehicles, along with the related replacement parts, garments, and accessories.

The company has been benefiting from strong demand for recreational vehicles and a shortage of inventory in the industry. This led to a strong second quarter where earnings rose 107.7% year over year and sales jumped 40.2% year over year.

PII has a solid balance sheet with only $53 million in short term debt and a current ratio of 1.2. EBITDA has grown an average of 21.4% per year over the past three years. However, earnings are expected to fall 29.1% year over year in the current quarter.

The stock appears undervalued based on both its trailing and forward P/Es of 11.89 and 13.93. This has led to a Value Grade of A in our POWR Ratings system. The stock showed bullish momentum from November to April, but performance has been mixed since then, as shown in the chart below.

PII has tested the $123 level (green) several times over the course of the past six months. The stock appears to be falling back down to that support level again.

A break of $123 could mean much lower prices for the stock.. If the stock were to break below the support level, a short position could be entered with a protective stop placed above it.

PII shares were unchanged in premarket trading Thursday. Year-to-date, PII has gained 33.95%, versus a 20.73% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

Author: Christian Tharp